while the European Central Bank was forceful it had some way to go. Even the Bank of Japan surprised with a reversal of its zero rate policy.
Other models build their valuations on economic data such as trade balances, cyclical influences and current account and fiscal deficits. These are within the acronyms such as REER, BEER and FEER, all looking for an equilibrium/economic/effective exchange rate , while using different approaches.
The key is that this is against the US dollar, which most believe has run its cyclical course and is due to retrace some ground. Against other currencies, the outlook for the Australian dollar is benign. The proviso is from other influences such as political risk aversion and investor flows. By way of example, Japan has been a long-term holder of US dollar debt given it could earn a return compared to its zero rate. That is changing.
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