Things I’ve learnt through the first half of 2023

One thing that stands out about 2023 – in terms of the global stock market – is that it has been the opposite of 2022, which investors did not expect. What I have learnt and what continues to reinforce my belief that the stock market cannot be timed and that it is a place where wealth is transferred from the impatient to the patient:Tech stocks got crushed last year with the Nasdaq 100 falling more than 30%.

But low rates alone didn’t cause Apple to increase sales from $170 billion to nearly $400 billion in 10 years. Low rates alone have nothing to do with the AI speculation currently taking place with NVIDIA shares. On average, the stock market has much better returns in a year when inflation is lower than when it’s higher.

American consumers continue their phenomenal run: real consumption up sharply in April and has risen at a 6.6% annual rate so far in 2023. And these are the average annual returns for the US stock market over a 40-year period of falling inflation and interest rates:Things were better during the 1980-2019 period but not as much as one would think.

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