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Rise in virus cases eclipses India’s early signs of economic recovery

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High-frequency indicators show activity levelled off in July, bank credit shrank 0.8% and tax collection moderated

Passenger trains stand empyt at Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj railway station during a 14-hour curfew to limit the spreading of Covid-19, in Mumbai, India, March 22 2020. Picture: REUTERS/FRANCIS MASCARENHAS

And that’s not all. Bank credit shrank 0.8% in the two weeks to July 17 from a fortnight ago, tax collection moderated last month, while a measure of interstate movement of goods traffic by road and rail was little changed. Data from private research firm Centre for Monitoring India Economy shows unemployment rising slightly after some improvement in June and July.

“We have been resorting to unplanned lockdowns that might be acting as a constraint on sustenance of economic activity.”A slump in factory output eased in June, latest data showed on Tuesday. While the index of industrial production fell 16.6%, the double-digit decline is shallower than the more than 30% contraction seen in May and more than 50% fall in April. That improvement isn’t enough to keep the economy from shrinking in 2020, the first contraction in more than four decades.

 

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