How the pandemic is testing Indonesia's commitment to fiscal discipline

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Populous Asian nation is ill-prepared to reopen at the same pace as other countries

Medical workers in personal protective equipment push oxygen cylinders outside the emergency ward of a government-run hospital amid the surge of Covid-19 in Bekasi, on the outskirts of Jakarta, Indonesia, on July 15 2021.

“The law still allows for it, so we must aim for 5% in 2022. If we go with 4.5%, the economy will not get better,” Said Abdullah,said. The government projects a deficit range of 4.51% to 4.85% for 2022. President Joko Widodo on Sunday extended mobility curbs to control the spread of the virus until at least August 2, though restrictions were eased for some small businesses. The broader curbs have been in place since early July.

The government has increased its relief budget to $51bn, extending cash transfers, electricity discounts and tax breaks. It also cut its 2021 GDP growth outlook to 3.7%-4.5% from 4.5%-5.3%.Last year’s 6.1% deficit was already the biggest in decades and though the country’s debt to GDP is comparably lower than other emerging markets, its tax take is among of the lowest in the Asia-Pacific and interest payments on debt relative to revenue are high.

To be sure, the government, which has a bigger sway in determining policy, has said it would stick with existing proposals and keep deficit targets. Bank Indonesia last year directly bought government bonds while relinquishing interest payments, an unorthodox measure that governor Perry Warjiyo has said will not be repeated.

 

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