Why Luxury's Loss Could Be Big Tech's Gain

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A broader cooling in luxury sales could disappoint investors who grew accustomed to the sector's supercharged growth during the pandemic.

The most expensive new iPhones cost roughly as much as some entry level must-have handbags, and many tastemakers won’t be seen without either. But as far as investors are concerned, that’s where the similarities end. Tech stocks remain red hot amid a potential cool-down in demand for luxury goods.Shares of luxury brands surged during the pandemic years. LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton was for a time the most valuable company in Europe, helmed by the world’s second-richest man.

CFRA Research analyst Firdaus Ibrahim kept a Hold rating on the Paris-listed shares while lowering his price target to €760 from €900, writing that “the result reflects a normalization for the luxury sector amid ongoing macro uncertainties,” and that LVMH faces a “challenging near-term outlook.” The Magnificent Seven—Apple , Amazon.com , Google parent Alphabet , Facebook parent Meta Platforms , Microsoft , Nvidia , and Tesla —that have driven so much of this year’s rally are the largest seven companies by market capitalization in the S&P 500 and make up 28% of its total weight.

Therefore luxury’s slowing growth is another worry for a region that is already seeing growth targets cut as Germany, its largest economy, is in a recession and the war in Ukraine rages on at its doorstep—a far cry from the soft landing or mild downturn outlook for the U.S. That may further the tech sector’s rally, but will do little to change the fact that U.S. market gains remain on a knife edge as long as they’re so beholden to so few stocks.

 

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