Voters Tend to Trust Trump on the Economy. Yet He’s Behind. Why?

It’s been 28 years since adviser James Carville helped propel Bill Clinton to the presidency by posting a sign in campaign headquarters reminding everyone there: “It’s the economy, stupid.” That was his singular way of drilling home the message that the economy mattered more to voters than anything else.

So far in 2020, though, it doesn’t seem to be the economy. Even though voters today prefer President Trump to handle the economy as much as ever,as the race enters its final two weeks. That raises two questions: Why? And could the economic issue still propel him to a final-days turnaround? Five times this year, The Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll has asked voters who they think would be better at handling the economy, Mr. Trump or Democrat Joe Biden. Five times they have named the president, by margins ranging from seven to 11 percentage points. Plenty of Americans, in short, appear to buythat the economy was in fine shape before the coronavirus hit, and that it isn’t his fault it has plunged since then.

More than that, when the poll asked voters just last week which issue is most important to them, they named the economy more than any other issue, including the coronavirus. All of that simply serves to frame the mystery of why that set of conditions isn’t working better for Mr. Trump. The answer starts with evidence suggesting the dominance of the economic issue may be something of a myth, which has its roots in that 1992 campaign. It simply isn’t true that the candidate or party given better marks on handling the economy wins an election, even when the economy seems to get top billing. Voters have other issues propelling them with nearly equal force—and sometimes they view those as matters that also affect their own everyday economy.

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