and 2019 census data to calculate the chances that you’ll be in a gathering that also contains a person infected with coronavirus.
Based on the map, as of publication time, San Franciscans in a 25-person group have a 37 percent chance of being with a person with coronavirus. That probability drops to 17 percent when the group shrinks to 10. Obviously, there are some flaws in the data — just looking at the map for Marin County, one has a 50 percent chance of being in a 25-person group with a person with COVID-19. But those numbers are skewed by, at which 2,231 inmates and 261 staff members have been infected.
Despite that, Weitz says that the map can be useful in helping people get their heads around how safe it might be to engage in various activities. “We want people to be informed about the risk,” Weitz tells the
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