Brazil central bank grasps new tool in crisis fight: forward guidance

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Brazil's central bank has adopted a new 'forward guidance' strategy to keep interest rates and bond yields low, bring inflation up to target and stimulate the economy's fragile recovery from the COVID-19 crisis.

BRASILIA - Brazil’s central bank has adopted a new “forward guidance” strategy to keep interest rates and bond yields low, bring inflation up to target and stimulate the economy’s fragile recovery from the COVID-19 crisis.

Strictly speaking, it is not a brand new policy for the bank’s rate-setting committee, known as Copom. The practice of reassuring markets that interest rates will not be raised for months or even years was briefly implemented under the presidency of Alexandre Tombini in late 2012 to early 2013, when the Selic was a then-low 7.25%.

Instead, forward guidance will be used to assure markets that the Selic rate will be kept low for a considerable period of time - and may yet be slightly lowered further - in the hope that market rates for the next few years will also stay low. Despite the challenges it faces, Copom said forward guidance was the strategy that offered “the best cost-benefit ratio” and would help keep borrowing costs on the “intermediary part” of the yield curve in check.

 

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