Can you have Thanksgiving during the COVID-19 pandemic? Researchers have created an interactive map that estimates the risk you’ll face in any county.
The vaccine and warm weather seasonality will help us. So sometime in April or May it will be much better, and all our projections for the summer look like not much COVID-19. The concern is what will happen after summer. That will depend on how many people receive the vaccine. It will need to be 70% to 80% to prevent another surge.We have data on mask wearing, mobility — how much people are moving around — the amount of testing happening in a region, density and seasonality. We know from tracking the virus over the summer in the Southern Hemisphere that it acts similar to pneumonia with numbers going up when the weather is cold.
We expect that states will reimpose mandates if cases are increasing too much and too fast, and we factor that in as well.When a member of the public sees a mandate being imposed and sees only a small reduction in cases, they may say it’s not having much impact.But someone who does epidemiology sees it totally differently. We are not comparing it to what came before. We compare it to what would have happened if we didn’t do it.
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Obviously latimes and DeborahNetburn have not done any investigative reporting. IHME_UW has consistently been wrong. They initially predicted 2M deaths based on analysis in a Seattle nursing home as reported in wsj.
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