The past, present and future of climate change

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In 1900 burning fossil fuels produced about 2bn tonnes of carbon dioxide. Today, the number is nearly 20 times greater

19th century Joseph Fourier, a French pioneer in the study of heat, showed that the atmosphere kept the Earth warmer than it would be if exposed directly to outer space. By 1860 John Tyndall, an Irish physicist, had found that a key to this warming lay in an interesting property of some atmospheric gases, including carbon dioxide. They were transparent to visible light but absorbed infrared radiation, which meant they let sunlight in but impeded heat from getting out.

The big difference between 1965 and now, though, is what was then a peculiar prediction is now an acute predicament. In 1965 the carbon-dioxide level was 320 parts per million ; unprecedented, but only 40ppm above what it had been two centuries earlier. The next 40ppm took just three decades. The 40ppm after that took just two. The carbon-dioxide level is now 408ppm, and still rising by 2ppm a year.

Further complexities abound. Burning fossil fuels releases particles small enough to float in the air as well as carbon dioxide. These “aerosols” warm the atmosphere, but also shade and thereby cool the surface below; in the 1960s and 1970s some thought their cooling power might overpower the warming effects of carbon dioxide. Volcanic eruptions also produce surface-cooling aerosols, the effects of which can be global; the brightness of the sun varies over time, too, in subtle ways.

Neither 1.5°C nor 2°C has any particular significance outside these commitments. Neither marks a threshold beyond which the world becomes uninhabitable, or a tipping point of no return. Conversely, they are not limits below which climate change has no harmful effects. There must be thresholds and tipping points in a warming world. But they are not well enough understood for them to be associated with specific rises in mean temperature.

Some countries already emit less than half as much carbon dioxide as the global average. But they are countries where many people desperately want more of the energy, transport and resources that fossil fuels have provided richer nations over the past century. Some of those richer nations have now pledged to rejoin the low emitters. Britain has legislated for massive cuts in emissions by 2050. But the fact that legislation calls for something does not mean it will happen.

It is true that, after a spectacular boom in renewable-energy installations, electricity from the wind and the sun now accounts for 7% of the world’s total generation. The price of such installations has tumbled; they are now often cheaper than fossil-fuel generating capacity, though storage capacity and grid modifications may make that advantage less at the level of the whole electricity system.

Source: Energy Industry News (energyindustrynews.net)

 

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PaulPolman It is time for the climate scientists and other who speak on behalf of saving our world to step up to the bat and promise not to waste tons of hydrocarbons by taking airplanes to conferences any more. It took Covid19 to show them how to use Zoom instead, stick to it now!

So less CO2 because of the lockdown didnt bring global warming down?

Agreed, but unfortunately and perhaps ironically, there is now a greater number of people doubting the data proving what was once doubted.

Stop envoking agenda 21

Sharing a pay walled article ugh

We need a cold silence in their

Contamination in water, gass emission in air, uncontrolled agriculture dedicated to food for cows... soybean... are all activities that should be rethought to heal our planet that is yelling at our damage done and we need to hear it! NOW!

What about this? Shuld it be considered and is it related to climate change?

There is also this: Milankovic cycles

Uh, this is a bald-faced lie. Developing nations are always universally exempt from any climate change legislation banning fossil fuels whereas developed nations are not.

For the virtue of data, when discussing carbon emissions, compared by their total populations, not per capita, is neither professional nor fair.

mmm delicious red / blue plant food Really the chart should have colored CO2 as green.

Who won't be feeling the cost - The corporations who caused it in the first place. Privatised profits and socialised losses.

Somewhere else caused the problem

...a dogwhistle headline if ever there was one. What's your point, Economist? Developing countries have had it far too good for far too long? Let's get back to business as usual?

IYCM You have little time to act to save our future!

Who bears the responsibility of man or creator

Amazon fire also give it's effect in future

: bull$hit. We’ve seen this song and dance before. “Climate models” that suggested Doom&Gloom, and not a single prediction happened. “Global warming” is a political movement.

Climate Hoax. Read about Milankovitch Cycles and you will have the explanation.

The sun. The earths core. The planets axis. The planets ever slightly changing orbit. That’s what heats the earth. It’s 7th grade science. No studies needed. Mars’ temp goinig up 1 degree yearly. No cars or cows or factories up there. Hummmm

Republicans and Tories like watching the world burn.

Ugh...we need to start incentivizing economic carbon capture.

buy softcommodities grain corn and all that grow

Please explain the Neoproterozoic time, between 600 and 800 million years ago and the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. I'll wait.

Nope. If the tilt of the earth is now with the North Pole facing the sun most of the year, it explains an irreversible climate change moving toward higher temperatures. Resulting in mass starvation & the formation of new deserts. Nothing can be done about this. Absolutely nothing

Just buy an air conditioner and stop complaining.

Only? How do you know? Were you hear 10,000 years ago?

Climate models are no more accurate or reliable than the null hypothesis: that humans do not affect the climate at all. Thus, ANY model, including one where unicorn farts cause climate change, is bound to be right as often as your favored models.

Ignoring the blue dot, In the north Atlantic, would be an insulting our intelligence. If the mountain in Greenland start melding, and altitude of that ice start goes down. There is almost no way back (lower altitude = higher temperature = we are fuck).

WashingtonPoint The average temperature increase/decrease according to people who thinks they can 'stop climate change'

SoniaBridi Os líderes primitivos ( maias, astecas, Egito antigo, etc) sempre usaram questões naturais para controlar o povo. Eclipses, furacões, secas, chuvas, erupções vulcânicas sempre foram motivos para sacrificar pessoas, criar impostos, manipular as massas. Nada mudou. Parabéns!

Thats propaganda - its not the climate, its the weather.

jesuscasique1 Even needs to board the boat of climate change anthropogenesis to keep audience. Pitty

So funny

💩

Then find safe places and move your families. Invest in local farms so you can eat.

Xavi_Bros are you not scaring you with the coldness and the ozone hole scammers?

False. Sun is the answer.

Bullshit!

EvanLSolomon Evan, remember how cold it was in June and how cold it was last winter? Common man.

Total crap. The doctoring of climate data is a scam on a global scale and we’re all going to pay the price for it.

“Only the models that show what we want them to show can explain what we’ve built them to explain!”

. crucial

Better than 1816 Year Without a Summer (also the Poverty Year and Eighteen Hundred and Froze To Death) because of severe climate abnormalities that caused average global temperatures to decrease by 0.4–0.7 °C (0.72–1.26 °F) result major food shortages across Northern Hemisphere.

EvanLSolomon Complete horseshit

Alguém devia de mostrar isto aos colunistas do Observador e oradores do Governo Sombra.

Impressive! The number of work done now is much more than 20 times than in 1900!!! We are so efficient and nobody recognizes!!!

Maybe it is not so bad? Carbon it is material for life. For very long 600 mln years a lot of carbon was be utilised and laid in the earth

Are humans going to have to breath co2 to die off to reach equilibrium for earth - and kill off everything else along the way?

Yes but to help keep things in perspective see my atrempt at a check list

That means plants will grow better and there will be less hunger.

Staggering fossilfuels

Earth was warmer with more CO2 during Middle age period, no human industrial activity.

It’s not co2 that’s the issue

So Let's All Save Fruit Seeds &Grow Fruit Trees Everywhere Literally &Figuratively Along with School Kids2 Sensitize Genext& Grow Globally 46 Billion Fruit Trees/YR SEQUESTER NOURISH ENRICH & ENLIGHTEN.!! About CLIMATE & RENEWABLES.! SCHOOL & COMMUNITY ACTION FOR CLIMATE HEALTH.!

What is the comparative population growth over the same period? What is the per person production of carbon dioxide?

CO2 still set to increase with another 230GW of Chinese coal power to build and commission in the next 20 years. That’s 150 power stations the size of Aberthaw S Wales that’s due to be decommissioned next year (subject to French interconnectors still working)

In 1900, how many years were left before the World was going to end?

With a population that has grown 5 times, this is a very sad conclusion. lessisbetter

Sorry I’ve been working on fixing acid rain and ozone since the 80s and 90s.

Interesting...

Waiting, waiting. History showing 50 years of failed predictions. E v e r y. Single 1.

The big problem here is when you say 'climate change' you mean 'man-made climate change'

This headline is false per peer reviewed studies by Richard Tol:

100% ifb

There was never a doubt about greenhouse warming, this is just a scientific fact. There might have been some doubt of the scale of man-made ClimateBreakdown and where the tipping points are.

So Together Let's All Save Fruit Seeds &Grow Fruit Trees Everywhere Literally and Figuratively Along with School Kids to Sensitize Genext& Grow Globally 46 Billion Fruit Trees/YR SEQUESTER NOURISH ENRICH & ENLIGHTEN.!! SCHOOL & COMMUNITY ACTION.!! FOR GREENER & HEALTHIER EARTH.!!

Umm, yeah, it's called climate cycles...

Oh do shut up

1st world countries claim they are concern but wage war and keeps on generating toxic wastes at the same time... LOL

😢

realDonaldTrump

It will reach 90 in NJ on Wednesday, followed by the warmest Sept I can remember in my 70 years.

LelHulagirl101

Since Argo in 2003, we have finally been able to get accurate data about ocean temperatures. Keep in mind this is the time period where we have produced CO2 at a rate even higher than the dooms day models used as their inputs.

For the climate models to be correct about CO2 and the resulting feedback loop from water vapor, they make a falsifiable “hotspot” claim. This observed data disproving it was known since 1995 then eventually published in 2006 (from FOI requests). Here is observed vs model

Logically the absence of an explanation does not confirm a hypothesis. Also, the data from those years come from a known contaminated source that biases recent temperatures upward falsely. Urban Surface Stations have long been exposed, yet the data is still used.

Thats not true - human activities are not the problem. But anyway stop overpopulation - reduce humans from 8 to 1 Mrd. and stop birthrates, the climate will sure be happy.

Most climate models are based on post industrial baselines ie ~1850. How does this graph change given that starting point?

Stupidity....

Thanks for providing clarity on the science. It's much needed.

SmritiShandil_ We're all gonna die and I'm prepared but little kids and animals didn't do anything wrong EVER jeez.

peter_simone So ein Quatsch, man sieht doch genau, dass es am Nordpol am schlimmsten ist obwohl dort keine Menschen leben. Das kann doch nicht Menschengemacht sein. *Duckweg*

drkiki Are these models based on the work of Michael E. Mann?

Yeah, did humans cause glaciers to melt in the entirety of the ice age?

As soon as the developed countries start to get serious with climate change, the problem of negative interest rates will cease to exist.

I’ve read the economist for many years. It’s always been a fairly conservative publication. It’s hilarious that folks are calling this fake news. Literally nothing is gonna get through 🤦🏼‍♂️

La globalizzazione ha favorito i voli a basso costo aumentati esponenzialmente con conseguente assottigliamento stratto dell'ozono naturale barriera ai raggi UVI causa dell'effetto serra. +videoconferenze-volintercontinentali.

And Sequester It So Let's All Save Fruit Seeds and Grow Fruit Trees Everywhere Literally and Figuratively Along with School Kids to Sensitize Genext& Grow Globally 46 Billion Fruit Trees/YR SEQUESTER NOURISH ENRICH & ENLIGHTEN.!! SCHOOL & COMMUNITY ACTION.!! FOR HEALTHIER EARTH.!

Fakenews.

oh brother. why are you using those statistics? they were proved bogus at least 10 years ago. the data doesn't match. news flash ALL the scientists KNOW this is flawed. It takes into account ALL opinions in order to get a 'consensus' among scientists.

““Integrated assessment models”, which combine economic dynamics with assumptions about the climate, suggest that getting to zero emissions by 2050 means halving current emissions by 2030. No nation is on course to do that. “ ClimateEmergency climatechange

You mitigate what exists. ClimateChange is a Scam created by AgentsOfLucifer in high places of power/governance to depopulate the earth & end development. What we have is WeatherModification. The lies of the scam are everywhere. Take a look... 👇👇👇

False predictions, bad data, and propaganda

Past, present and future ecolocaust

Talk to China and India and then get back to us. Thanks.

I'll stick with my air conditioner. Thanks.

Sorry the earth sciences has many pieces or

Interesting how they show US's CO2 emissions on a per capital basis are double China's but fail to acknowledge their population is 3-4 times larger... and, measuring CO2 in the air has to be larger than in an ice core sample. This lacks integrity.

Vietnam Because china,the third world countries eat Americans by brain-control arbitrarily,all of the world so, Americans donot go out! The brain-control is the equivalent of enemies's guns. We should only trade with them,and take struggle as the guiding ideology for communion.

Even after 500 scientists protested “no such thing as climate change” what does the Economist do, play headers. Glad I don’t pay a subscription price to your magazine anymore. What a waste.

If the rest of the world continues to allow the CCP to play the i am a developing country whilst bragging being a superpower CARD, it is not gonna happen China70years

And the planet is greener and with higher food production as a result. Rejoice

YOU ARE A BAD PARENT IF YOU DENY CLIMATE CHANE OR ARE NOT DOING SOMETHING ABOUT THE HUMAN DESTRUCTION OF OUR BEAUTIFUL 🌏 EARTH!

Thanks to China and India.

What a surprise.

Who would have thought in the 80s that Thatcher's brutal war against the miners was some kind of anticapitalistic protection of the climate?

I blame baby boomers.

Lions and Tigers and Bears...Oh my!! The sky is falling, the sky is falling!! 'Today, the number is nearly 20 times greater' ...duh u frickin idiots

There needs to be mandatory tariffs on polluter nations to encourage them to reduce emissions. The tariffs could be set based on cost of remediation of global warming. This would eliminate the economic advantage of polluting the environment. Similarly for plastics, etc.

CO2 + H2O ===== CHO + O2 ...... without carbon dioxide oxygen is not generated and life would end

Compare those two graphs and draw your conclusions.

Emissions are only going to get worse than that which is why more than ever government has to get out of the business and let new innovative technologies take over!

Still at 400 ppm they are a lot lower than 4,000 ppm back in the Jurassic period. What mankind caused the CO2 level back then? CO2 is natural and needed for trees. CO2 only makes up 0.04% of the atmosphere.

Eat the bugs Live in the pods Don't have kids The graphic's stacking is deceptive: The overall increase for nearly 30yrs has been the non-Western world (see green marks). US emissions haven't increased since that inflection point in the early 90s, and Europe's have gone down.

Time to get cranky.

If democrat stop farting

Airlines' CO2 emissions rising 70% faster than predicted.

Yes they are in China and some other Pacific rim countries. What is TheEconomist doing about it?

The primary sectors that generated over 90% of the greenhouse gases in the US in 2017 were Transportation (28.9%), Electricity Generation (27.5%), Industry (22.2%) and Commercial & Residential (11.6%).

Dispife overwhelming evidence, there are still tons of climate deniers. What will it take to wake people up?

DemoCraps need to stop farting too much.

now overlay a graph of rising temps.

I personally know two NGOs which plant trees in Africa for as low as 10 cents a tree. So by investing a hundred billion dollars a trillion trees could be planted. By doing this we would gain valuable time to act on the side of emission reduction.

Any study about world temp change, which not include a solar activity factor, is not serious

Nice progress!

Code for: We need to steal even more money from working and middle class people so elites can continue to live it up and multinationals can ship more of our jobs to the 3rd world.

KennyNeider I heard today on the news in the Netherlands that every 50 years raises 5 degrees in the whole world super sad😔

We do all exhale CO2

Climate models are fabricated to give the desired result. The fact there's no explanation without a model doesn't mean the model is right, it just means that we are not smart enough (yet?) to explain it. A long time ago we used to think earth was flat...

I was about to say, there are no comments arguing I shouldn't believe scientists and that I should believe experts on the internet, corporate fossil fuel sockpuppets and politicians. That would have been foolish.

This is not real. This is the output of a computer. This is a model.

What percentage of that was created by active volcano eruption? What percentage of that was produced by countries such as India, China, Pakistan and Russia coming on stream and not attempting to reduce carbon content?

Increase in profits through capitalism means the rich get richer, the poor get poorer and the environment gets more and more harmed.

Then, how can the climate be changed.

alllibertynews What happens to the numbers when wood burning (now largely obsolete) is taken into account, along with the increase in vegetation from not burning so much wood and its value as a carbon sink?

Population growth has driven it. The more people around, the more energy resources consumed, the more carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere.

fyi _smartcity_

Blame Canada 🇨🇦

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