The “hot” CPI print yesterday needs to be taken with a grain of salt

Outlook With only a speck of sarcasm, Reuters notes that the month/month rise was 0.359%, then rounded up to 0.4%, when 0.3% had been forecast. “The rounded print would have been in line with expectations had the number come in less than one basis point lower.” In addition, we will be getting PPI tomorrow and PCE/core PCE on April 26. For Feb, core PCE had been up 0.3% m/m and 2.8% y/y. This is actually the data to look at, not CPI , for the simple reason it’s what the Fed prefers.

” Remember this comes two days after the presidential election, and is therefore simply not a realistic expectation. Shunning politics or not, there is no way the Fed waits until after the election. Today we get PPI but probably more importantly, speeches from Feds, including Boston Pres Collins, New York Pres Williams, Richmond Fed Pres Barkin and Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic. It’s doubtful these will be useful. We will also get a slew of inflation data to plow through.

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