As far as risk events are concerned, next week provides traders with both the US and UK inflation data for March. The March figures are set to capture a fair amount of the negative price shocks that have resulted from already constrained supply chains but more importantly, the Russian invasion of Ukraine.With inflation data frequently beating forecasts, potentially hotter UK inflation may reignite hawkish rhetoric from the MPC members ahead of the May interest rate decision.
Interestingly enough, the pound tends to have its best month during April and worst month in May according to data from 1 Jan 2010 to now. If that were to be the case this year, sterling would reverse from relatively low levels, providing an attractive risk-reward setup. However, no clear signs of a bullish reversal have presented themselves and so we look ahead to the economic calendar next week for potential catalysts.
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