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Post-conviction polls offer hints about impact on the 2024 race

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Steve Benen is a producer for 'The Rachel Maddow Show,' the editor of MaddowBlog and an MSNBC political contributor. He's also the bestselling author of 'The Impostors: How Republicans Quit Governing and Seized American Politics.'

Before a jury found Donald Trump’s guilty of 34 felonies, there was a fair amount of polling on the potential impact on the 2024 presidential election. There was, however, an important caveat hanging overhead. As we discussed last week, pollsters routinely ask the public for their opinions about things that have happened. The task becomes a little trickier when pollsters ask about expected opinions related to things that haven’t yet happened.

The same data found President Joe Biden with a two-point lead over Trump, after having found the two major-party candidates tied before the trial. Reuters poll: In this survey, 10% of registered Republican voters said they were less likely to vote for Trump now that he’s been found guilty of felonies. Similarly, 25% of registered independent voters said the same thing. The same data also found Biden leading by two points.

Source: Entertainment Trends (entertainmenttrends.net)

 

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