One pollster thinks it has an answer: Just ask your neighbor whom he or she is planning to vote for.has been angling to determine who is really leading in the dead heat race.
The headline numbers for its latest survey found Biden with 42% national support and Trump with 40%. It described the race as “neck and neck” and within the margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 points.First, the polling outfit looked at independent voters, who are expected to play an outsize role in the November outcome. Among independents, TIPP said Trump led 35% to 30%.
Next, Biden is losing his big advantage among black and Hispanic people. “African Americans, for instance, gave 87% of their vote to Biden in 2020, compared to just 12% for Trump. But that’s changed dramatically in 2024: Black voters say they favor Biden by 59%, a 28% decline from four years ago, while 15% say they back Trump, a three percentage-point gain. All told, it’s a 31-point swing,” TIPP said.
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