Online bettors are placing little likelihood of a tapering announcement being made at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting in Washington.
The odds of no announcement from the Sept. 21-22 gathering were 93% as of Monday, according to the new online trading platform Kalshi. That is up from roughly 69% on Aug. 30. More than 8,000 contracts were traded on the anticipated outcome, with each contract pegged to one dollar and percentages expressed as cents.One big question on the minds of investors has been how much the U.S.
“Over the last few weeks, markets have decided that a tapering announcement is highly unlikely to occur at the next meeting,” said Will Arnesen, a former senior research analyst for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, who now works on Kalshi’s markets team. “That is largely on the basis of Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, as well as the latest jobs report.” The 7% chance that there may be an announcement next week reflects “a risk that markets would react heavily” to.
Kalshi was funded by Sequoia Capital; Charles Schwab, chairman of Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW, +0.06% ; and Henry Kravis, co-chairman & co-CEO of KKR & Co. KKR, +0.75%, among other investors. The platform, a CFTC-regulated financial exchange, began operating live in July — giving investors the chance to buy “Yes” or “No” positions on the anticipated outcomes of future events. The September Federal Open Market Committee contract opened on Aug.
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