on India’s financial markets was bleak. The previous month Infrastructure Leasing and Financial Services , a Mumbai-based lender with scores of subsidiaries, had defaulted on a series of loans. Stockmarket indices fell sharply . Investors worried not only that the firm’s losses would directly harm other institutions, but also that similar problems might be lurking in other lenders.
Crucial to the rally have been foreign buyers, whose activities are tracked and reported by local exchanges. Their importance is a consequence of the odd ownership structure of Indian companies. More than half the shares of private companies are held by “promoters”, managers with controlling stakes, who rarely trade. Similarly, the government sits on its shares in the numerous semi-public companies in which it holds large stakes, in sectors such as banking, coal and oil.
The first is the election. As a bitter campaign reaches its final stages, fears that the result will be a destabilising muddle have receded. Narendra Modi, the current prime minister, looks likely to remain in office, albeit with a reduced majority. He has not lived up to all the business-friendly promises he made before entering office, but investors would still prefer stability over unpredictable parliamentary horse-trading.
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