Japan Hunkers Down for Trump 2.0

Visitors observe the seasonal cherry blossoms at the Ueno Park on Friday, April 5, 2024, in Tokyo, Japan. | Eugene Hoshiko/APLionel Barber is a former editor of the Financial Times and author of a forthcoming biography of Masayoshi Son, founder and CEO of SoftBank. He is also a Global Council member of the I-House/API think tank.Here’s the good news from Japan. The cherry blossoms are stunning, the stock market is booming, and Tokyo’s Haneda airport is chockablock with foreign tourists.

The truth is that we are already living in a “Trump 1.5” world. Despite multiple civil and criminal charges, the ex-president is exerting extraordinary influence over current U.S. policy. Having swept to the Republican presidential nomination, he is calling the shots on Capitol Hill on issues ranging from the stalled Ukraine military aid package to the blocked Mexican border bill.

It is not only Kyiv, London or Paris that worries about a Trumpian dirty deal to end the Ukraine war. Any agreement which appears to reward Russian aggression would, in Japanese eyes, encourage China in its own territorial ambitions. Taiwan is the obvious target, with some Japanese military experts warning privately that Chinese President Xi Jinping is likely to “do something” before his third term expires in 2027.

But many questions remain about whether Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party-led coalition government can meet its spending commitments. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s approval rating has tanked and he may have to call an election this fall. Kishida is also hobbled by his peacenik coalition partner Komeito, which will challenge every effort to interpret more liberally the constitutionally mandated “self-defense” clause covering Japan’s armed forces.

During my five-day trip to Tokyo, I attended a meeting of a new global think tank — the merger of the International House of Japan established by John D Rockefeller III to repair U.S.-Japan ties after World War II and the Asia Pacific Initiative, set up by Yoichi Funabashi, the former newspaper editor, author and national security expert.

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