Giant Sunspot AR3038 has Doubled in Size and is Pointed Right at Earth. Could be Auroras Coming

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A giant sunspot doubled in size in less than 24 hours. Should that be concerning? No, but ones like it might create auroras by AndyTomaswick

UT video describing when we should be worried about solar flares.

Solar flares occur when the magnetic fields surrounding a sunspot break and rejoin in complex patterns, some of which cause flairs to be ejected out into the solar system. If these hit the Earth, they could potentially cause damage to some infrastructure, especially those reliant on electricity. However, they are much more likely to create spectacular auroras when their ions hit Earth’s own magnetic field.

They are rated in severity, scaling from B to C, M, and X . X flares have their own grading system, and the most powerful solar flares, X20, happen less than once per 11-year solar cycle and typically do not face Earth. The likelihood of an X20 forming due to AR3038 is minuscule, though there was a 10% chance of it creating a less powerful X flare. More likely are M flares, which AR3038 has a 25% chance of developing before it dies down in size and scale, as sunspots typically do. However, it doesn’t look like any of those flares will be directed at Earth, as AR3038 has rotated back out of view and is no longer facing us. There is another active region, AR3040, which had 6 C-class flares in the last 24 hours.

If not, the whole episode with the rapid growth of AR3038 will prove another example of the public being generally concerned about what appears to be a threatening turn of events, but which is quite common and even innocuous. With all the equipment currently set up to monitor the Sun, the general public can rest assured that we’ll have at least some warning before any potentially damaging flare affects our Earth-bound systems.

 

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