Fact check: did South African epidemiologist accurately predict nation's COVID surge?

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A screengrab of an August article featuring a South African expert's apparent prediction of a new COVID surge has sparked conspiracy theories on social media.

"The 4th wave launch button has been pressed.. In fact on 17 Nov Watch positivity and cases climb over the next week until 2 Dec.. The day oracle Karim predicted its landing months ago..," said another tweet, which gathered more than 150 interactions.

that Omicron was a part of a clandestine"agenda," or that"the whole thing is planned and here is the proof."by Bloomberg in August. It reported his forecast that South Africa's fourth wave of COVID infections would begin on December 2. While on the surface the accuracy with which the expert pinpointed the beginning of the latest wave of the pandemic seems striking, his comments prior and following the article's publication provide additional context.with eNews Channel Africa, which aired August 18—the day after the Bloomberg story was published, Abdool Karim explained that he was simply providing an estimate"when things are likely to happen.

"If that remains the case, then we can expect our fourth wave to occur roughly in the first half of December, or, say, in the first three weeks. I used December 2 as a marker to indicate it was early December. I don't know the exact date," he stated.

 

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