.” Of course, “Shang-Chi” opened exclusively in theaters. But let’s say that “Dune” manages to match its receipts. If so, a qualified victory will be declared, and we’ll be left speculating about how much the movie might have made if it weren’t competing with itself on TV. We’ll also speculate about what it would have made on opening weekend in pre-pandemic times. My guess is: somewhere between $175 and $250 million domestic.
Warner Bros. will take all that speculation — the lack of certainty — and use it as cover for its decision. The studio would say, in essence, “We’re fine with a $95 million opening. Under different circumstances, who can say how well the movie would have performed?” And, of course, they’ll double down on making the argument for how much it helps the company’s bottom line to offer the film on HBO Max. A movie like “Dune” is a subscription magnet; that’s the whole point.
Or so goes the reasoning. But it’s amazing how much common sense “sophisticated” business rationales can leave behind. It’s now too late for Warner Bros. to reverse its day-and-date decision about “Dune” — commitments have been made, logistics have been locked in — but here are a few reasons why I think it will prove to be a mistake.If “Dune” opens with $95 million, it will be clear that the studio left a lot of money on the table. Especially if the grosses seriously decline in the weeks ahead.
Of course, there’s another possibility in all this. “Dune” opens on Oct. 22, people watch it on HBO Max, and itgoes on to be a massive theatrical hit. It breaks the bank. That would be a happy ending, one that might help rewrite the rules of what’s coming. But I’m not holding my breath.
The movie wasn't good and likely would have flopped in the theaters. It was a beautifully shot movie but the story was too drawn out and lackluster.
Dune deserves to be seen in movie theaters.
Moviegoing hasn't returned in force as audience returning now is the same returned 14 months ago under 35s any films targeting older demographics has struggled but Dune will open exactly as expected similar to Blade Runner 2049 as would have done without being released on HBO Max
This is great, I don’t have to sit and smell beefy belches from the guy who inhaled a movie theater hot dog. Who then shakes the skittles box each time he pours it down his throat. True story. I love watching movies at home.
Absolutely a mistake, good thing I'm watching this the proper way as Denis Villeneuve intended on one of the biggest IMAX screens in North America at the AMC Lincoln Square IMAX theater.
Funny seeing a tweet by Variety getting so heavily dogged by very obviously fake, astroturfing accounts. Your money is being completely wasted on this strategy. 400K tweets on accounts who’s personality seems to be entirely dedicated to status quo politics is not subtle.
I couldn’t care less about Dune.
Our home theater is just fine, thanks. Who the hell wants to sit in a crappy dirty movie theater seat and not be able to go to the bathroom without missing something and spend my kids inheritance on shitty movie theater junk food?
Nah I'm good. Watching at home is much better.
A) Pandemic not over. B) The future is streaming.
I agree. I’m watching it in bed.
I have a movie theater in my basement. 100 inch projected screen with surround sound built it during covid. I worked double time on a Philly ER to afford it. And you want me to go to a cinaplex?
I watched at home and saved money. IT IS WEiRDLY JUST LIKE the 80s version. However, it's not as rich in backstory or how strange humanity is in this reality. All humans are bred for jobs as machines are outlawed. So, everyone is a freak. Lynch got that, this movie does not.
As I was watching it tonight at home, I kept thinking how much better it would be watching it on a big screen. The cinematography is incredible. Imight go see it in the theater. Some movies can be seen on a small screen and work perfectly. This is not the case with Dune.
The only problem is releasing in movie theaters 165 million budget movies in the middle of a global crisis. Maybe producers and studios will learn to expent less money in movies and still make them appealing to the people willing to go to movie theaters.
I can’t wait to go sit in a theatre with a bunch of maskless people next to me and my family during a pandemic
Boring flick
SoniKush_38 tiens, c'est clairement en accord avec ce que tu disais
Yeah, my 82” 4K and 10 speaker Dolby 5.1 setup really sucked when I watched it. Oh, and I sat my happy ass in my comfortable recliner, popped my own popcorn for $1, drank a couple of Mich Ultra’s, and paused it to go take a piss about 2 hours in. But I should go to the show.
Yup, because COVID is totally over. Completely gone. No one getting sick. No breakthrough deaths of vaccinated people. It's absolutely safe to go out and sit in a crowded, poorly ventilated room in order to see pretty special effects on a 30 foot screen. 🙃🙃🙃
Oh, shut up, will yah? Many of us aren't going back for a while yet. I've got leukemia and am glad I can finally see first run movies at home. Not 'missing' a thing!
Spot on. Same applies to every movie the studios screwed over with this straight to video crap
Lol you guys can try to postpone the inevitable all you want
There’s a fucking pandemic. I’m so excited to watch this at home.
Not a mistake. People are still watching. This weird obsession with filling theater seats is getting old.
yeah, it should just be in homes to be respectful of a global pandemic that's killing millions.
except it’s not a mistake
OwenGleiberman I'm sorry, but are you fucking kidding me? The pandemic isn't over, children can't be fucking vaccinated yet. I have two small children, I LOVE Dune. I'm stoked to see it. No way would I risk my children's health even by going alone. Im thrilled to watch at home. I'd pay extra
OwenGleiberman It’s not fair to label $50 mill as “just okay.” $50 mill would have been a stretch for Dune pre-pandemic. The HBOMAX hybrid releases have established a clear $30 mill cap. So if it reaches that cap, that’s “just okay.” Anything over and it’s a success. $50 mill is a monster hit.
OwenGleiberman Guess Variety reporting is pivoting from ”reviewers split” now after the movie has 91 percent on Rotten Tomatoes 🍅 😂
OwenGleiberman To be fair, the Gliebster also believes Halloween was a Texas Chainsaw Massacre ripoff.
OwenGleiberman When a Wise Man Points at the Moon, The Fool Looks at the Finger (...look out for that sandworm!). When Dune will be on HBOMax people will pay more attention on the screenplay, that is more interesting than you think.
OwenGleiberman did you notice that there's still a pandemic happening?
OwenGleiberman A) I pay for my service. Just because Variety steals from their former college roommate’s aunt doesnt mean everyone does. B) what really doesn’t make sense is cramming into a poorly ventilated room to gasp and yell for 2 hours, with an unknown number of snivelling flakes.
Another question: does Owen need to get a fucking grip?
OwenGleiberman This film needs a big screen experience. It’s gorgeous.
OwenGleiberman There's a fucking pandemic still raging out there, Owen!
OwenGleiberman Since it will probably be a shit show, yeah its fine....
OwenGleiberman
OwenGleiberman Yes, it makes perfect sense in a pandemic and the fans are extremely grateful that we got to see so many films SAFELY this year thanks to hbomax
OwenGleiberman Selfish take on a situation that’s still a mess around the world. Even in the US it’s not safe yet, think of all the irresponsible people probably in the enclosed theater with you. I think it’s rather nice WB is giving people a choice!
OwenGleiberman no
OwenGleiberman Give it away. GIVE IT AWAY. I'm sorry, but the streaming service offering it isn`t FREE. I am PAYING for it. It costs me real MONEY. Some of us out here are POOR & can't afford $70 & risking our lives during a plague to line your f'n pockets, but $14.99 at home we can do.
OwenGleiberman Hell yeah, my home theater system is ready & ill be like this when Dune comes out
OwenGleiberman Since that's where I'll be watching it, I'm gonna say... HARD YES!
OwenGleiberman Pretty sure I pay for HBOMax. No one is giving it away to anyone. If anything, it’s potentially finding a larger audience. And in a safe way.
OwenGleiberman funny, I just saw the reverse question for Dear Evan Hanson which is a box office bomb and not on a streamer yet and they asked if it would have made more sense to stream it rather then box office exclusive
OwenGleiberman Absolutely yes. Also, they are not giving it away.
OwenGleiberman I predicted this would be terrible based on casting and Horrible PC. The story is about fascist freaks in the future. Of course we can't have people with weird eyebrows or sinister homosexuals. I read viewers find the story and characters boring due to being sanitized. Stay home
OwenGleiberman Friends of mine in Armenia saw it on Friday and told me it was amazing to see on the big screen. Pre-covid, I would see it on a big movie screen as well. But we are still in a global covid-19 pandemic, so home is a good option to have. Bravo to hbomax for making it available.
OwenGleiberman Yes, yes it does.
OwenGleiberman People: GO TO THE MOVIES. Nobody is there whenever I go. Support these damn theaters
OwenGleiberman It’s not being given away if it’s a paid service. People PAY for hbomax!
OwenGleiberman Do I want to see it in a theater? Yes. Do I want to get covid because people suck? No. Health over entertainment.
OwenGleiberman Says the dude typing with his dick out.
OwenGleiberman no it doesn't make sense
OwenGleiberman answer: NO hbomax
OwenGleiberman So would you like to make $10 for 1 sale today? Or would you like to make $10 for the same product every single month for years to come, with access to that customer on all verticals? It’s like comparing selling 1 apple to one person, versus creating the apple marketplace
OwenGleiberman Doesn't make sense and that's why WB is being sold to Discovery. That's how huge they fucked up. I like that, I'd love to see someone who is passionate about theatrical experience takes charge of WB.
OwenGleiberman No. It makes no sense.
OwenGleiberman During a global pandemic? Yes, Owen.
OwenGleiberman As someone who just saw it in theaters, this is a must see in theaters
OwenGleiberman I dunno sounds pretty cool to me Owen.
OwenGleiberman cool story. I'll watch it on hbomax like everyone else.
OwenGleiberman This is the part where I remind everyone that Blade Runner 2049 was a box office disappointment. If we measure success by box office take then the fucking Transformers franchise is the pinnacle of modern sci fi. Let the people who count beans do what they do.
OwenGleiberman HBO making big mistakes with big movies
OwenGleiberman I mean those who want the cinema experience will go, those who want to watch from the comfort of their home will do so, and most importantly if the film is truly good people will go to see it regardless-look at FF9 and Shang Chi
OwenGleiberman Owen, forgive me but You're Facts seem misleading? You mentioned Warner Brothers owns HBO max, & they're after subscriptions. However, U negate that & speculate DUNE will financially fail if BOX OFFICE is low? HBO Max's margins are poised to be FAR more profitable than Theaters
OwenGleiberman Sure it does. It’s a bomb and they want to maximize the initial take before the reviews and word of mouth are in. After that, it’s on Redbox for $2.
OwenGleiberman I mean if people aren’t willing to die for a movie then what did we even fight the Nazis for? Sarcasm
OwenGleiberman Cool. I’ll stream it.
OwenGleiberman You’re missing the part where HBO and WB promised their consumers at the top of the year that it would be available to stream. What doesn’t make sense would be them reneging on that promise and pissing off subscribers
OwenGleiberman This movie is the kind of movie you must watch in a cinema. People is just getting to lazy and it will definetly destroy cinema as we know it if they keep this model.
OwenGleiberman Pandemic much?
OwenGleiberman Can't wait to watch it at home because fuck you
OwenGleiberman Pan-dem-ic
OwenGleiberman “Moviegoing has returned in force.” Personally, I still think going to the movies is a mistake. I haven’t seen the movie yet that’s worth risking Long COVID for. If it’s good, they can re-release it when this is over and I’ll go see it again on the big screen.
OwenGleiberman No it does not
OwenGleiberman still watching it on HBO lol
OwenGleiberman It does if you want to rip off the talent.
Gotta gouge the viewers with six dollar soda pop.
I'm subscribing to HBO Max in October, so they caught me. I'm also going to see Dune in IMAX. If the film doesn't meet expectations it might well be because this film only tells half a story. Dune 1 is all foreplay.
Smart people will invest in watching DuneMovie the first time in the theater, preferably IMAX, then watch it at home. It's a real treat to give yourself the viewing pleasure in a theater with fellow fans. I saw Dune already and it must be seen at least once in the theater. Trust
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