Take the European Union’s recovery from the pandemic. For the first time since last spring, economic optimism is in the air. Across Europe, vaccines are going into arms, summer holidays are being booked and bars are opening up. The European Commission has just jacked up its growth forecasts for 2021 and 2022, citing the bloc’s €750bn recovery fund as one of the reasons why. This cash should start appearing in European treasuries later this year.
Where the European Central Bank was actively making things worse a decade ago, it is now helping governments out of their hole. In the spring of 2011 the bank was raising rates and worrying about a brief flurry of inflation, rather than stagnant growth. It was not treated as a lender of last resort until a year later, when Mario Draghi finally pledged to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro.
If the technocrats have changed their tune, so, to some extent, have the politicians. Long-held political certainties have been revisited. During the previous crisis common debt was suggested as a necessary step to guarantee the future of the euro, only to be dismissed by the likes of Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor. Mrs Merkel reversed course last May.
This article appeared in the Europe section of the print edition under the headline "Whatever it took?"
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We'll see. Jury is OUT.
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