All the Ways That “1 in 5,000 per Day” Breakthrough Infection Stat Is Nonsense

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The stat made its way from the New York Times to a presidential speech, but it reflects broad estimations and bad priorities.

that less than 25 percent of infections are confirmed through testing. This underreporting problem is likely worse for people who are vaccinated—their symptoms tend to be milder and they are less likely to be tested in a health care setting. Another problem is that health departments struggle to confirm whether an infected person has in fact been vaccinated. If someone has been vaccinated in another state or at a Veterans Affairs facility, they would in most cases be mislabeled as unvaccinated.

. It is also true that large majorities of the people who are hospitalized or die from COVID-19 are not vaccinated.But there are three main reasons I think we need to take breakthrough infections seriously. First, vaccinated people can still transmit the virus to people who are unvaccinated, including children who are not yet eligible for the vaccine. Second, there are people whose health conditions put them at high risk of hospitalization and death even if they are vaccinated.

 

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