Women’s NCAA Tournament upset picks: Can Duke take down Ohio State?

On Friday, the first-round games in the women’s tournament offered us a fine lesson in a fundamental difference between this version of March Madness and the one played by men. In the men’s game, the gap between the very best teams on the one hand and power-conference also-rans, the best mid-majors and even on the other has become narrow enough that if everything goes right for an underdog on a bad night for a favorite, anything really can happen. That’s not yet true on the women’s side.

Well, maybe some folks who are always ready to write dissertations on how the NCAA selection committee treats the Duke men poorly should have saved some of their keystrokes for promoting Kara Lawson’s crew. Our model says Duke is the 19th-best team in the country. The Blue Devils have outscored their opponents by 35.7 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for the fact they have played the nation’s 16th-strongest schedule, according to Slingshot.

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