Who wins from the unravelling of Sino-American trade?

and downturn to the deterioration in Chinese-American relations, there has been no let-up to the blows battering the world’s trading system. The latest threat stems from the possibility of another global recession. Only two years after the world sank into a covid-induced slump, shipping bosses are again warning of grim prospects for international trade.

Global trade in goods staged an impressive bounceback after the covid-induced downturn of 2020. As a share of world, the value of such trade last year rose to its highest since 2014. But not all trade routes are flourishing. When Mr Trump took his protectionist turn, there was hope that economies in Africa and Latin America might attract some of the business that would have otherwise flowed to China. That has not happened.

The great champions of the past four years are instead in Asia. Exports to America from Bangladesh and Thailand have jumped by more than 80% since 2018; exports fromare up by more than 170% . India and Indonesia have seen their exports grow by more than 60%. All of this means that China’s share of American imports dropped by four percentage points between 2018 and 2022, from 21% to 17%. China used to account for nearly half of Asia’s exports to America; now it accounts for just over a third.

Cultivating new sources of goods or components takes time and investment, so the shift in trade patterns now visible in the data mostly reflects choices firms made well before this year’s geopolitical ructions. Some redistribution of trade would have happened even in placid economic conditions. Rising labour costs in China, for instance, would have made it attractive to move low-value sorts of manufacturing—in textiles and apparel, say—to places like Bangladesh.

Putin y China

The “media” companies who get paid by Chinese “think tanks”to w rite these articles

Fact matters. US-China trade actually increasing.

India

Good

Nobody wins from the trade war started by the US.

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