. Moody’s predicted this week that the price of diesel in the United States alone would add more than $1 from pre-pandemic levels this year, hitting $4.50 per gallon. In Europe, fuel imports from India jumped threefold in February, indicating stronger demand. Yet supply has become tricky. In the U.S., distillate inventories remain below the five-year average despite several weekly builds of quite sizable proportions earlier this year.
During the pandemic lockdowns, trade surged, and so did demand for diesel. But, production did not surge, resulting in an imbalanced market that barely avoided a shortage. The price for this avoidance was a slump in economic activity because of high interest rates. Now, however, it appears that economic activity is beginning to recover, possibly helped by the prospect of rate cuts, notably in the United States. This means higher fuel demand.
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