Should the Conservatives lose their two parliamentary seats in Kingswood and Wellingborough, the party will exceed its record of by-election defeats in a single parliament. There is a chance too that the party could experience its worst ever defeat to Labour, on course to capture both seats. But emerging divisions within Labour, over the conflict in the Middle East and now the ditching of the green investment pledge, could check its electoral progress.
9% of the electorate voted, setting a record for the lowest turnout since 1945 where the seat changed hands. We don't know for sure whether this only happened because Conservative supporters preferred to stay at home, but it has to form part of the explanation. Electoral indifference has been a feature of by-elections this parliament, an average 29-point drop in turnout compared with the previous general election.
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