The Tories have got their own by-election woes

Reform UK candidate Ben Habib campaigning from the party bus in Wellingborough, Northamptonshire, ahead of a by-election on Thursday are seen as bellwethers of national political trends – the equivalent of the water diviner’s twitching rod.

Labour’s base has long occupied a different stance on Middle East conflicts to its leadership. Tony Blair’s incursion into Iraq cost him the Leicester South by-election in 2004. The hesitation in dropping Ali resulted in testy conversations between campaigns co-ordinator Pat McFadden, Starmer himself and other aides on how best to control the fallout. It reflects the same fundamental dislocation of opinion inside the party in a different geopolitical era.

The installation of Bone’s partner Helen Harrison as replacement – a local association own-goal which infuriated No 10 – is also a chance for Labour to surge. Ministers have stayed away from a toxic fray and only neighbouring Tory MPs felt obliged to show up. As one Conservative Central Office source puts it, “the problem is that it is an example of the kind of ‘just-stay-home’ vibe likely to be Sunak’s biggest headache in bringing a strong Tory turnout to the general election”.

That combination accounted for two key errors in Rochdale – a hasty nomination process, which resulted in choosing a candidate with strong Asian support, and then being too slow to drop him as Code Red warnings about his professed views emerged.

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