EARLIER THIS month France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, spawned a thousand headlines by declaring that he wished to “piss off” people who had chosen not to be vaccinated against covid-19. Under new legislation France’s 5m unjabbed will soon be barred from restaurants, theatres and long-distance trains, among other things. Yet they might consider themselves lucky. Italy, Greece and the Czech Republic have passed, or plan to pass, vaccine mandates for older people.
A second concern is epidemiological. The German and Austrian laws were proposed when the Delta variant was dominant. But mandates may not prove as adaptable as the SARS-Cov-2 virus. What if the next variant requires a modified vaccine, or a fresh booster? For Janosch Dahmen, a German Green MP , the uncertainty surrounding the behaviour of future variants presents a yet-stronger reason to press ahead with compulsory vaccination now. Others disagree.
Yet no one knows if mandates will work. One Austrian survey found that roughly two-thirds of the 1m remaining unvaccinated adults were fervent anti-vaxxers, unlikely to get jabbed at any cost. But such polls may be misleading. Before the roll-out began, surveys suggested France was among Europe’s most vaccine-sceptical countries; in practice, it has attained one of the EU’s higher take-up rates.
Moreover, constitutional courts are sure to frown on mandates if they take effect before all other possibilities have been exhausted. America’s Supreme Court recently prevented the federal government from requiring all employees in large workplaces to be vaccinated or tested. European governments are becoming ever more stern: Germany’s unvaxxed are largely excluded from public life.
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