UP researchers forecast 40,000 COVID-19 cases by June 30

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The same group of researchers earlier warned that lifting ECQ on May 15 may result in an escalation of 24,000 cases in Metro Manila by June 15. The researchers say easing restrictions is still not ideal at this time. READ:

— COVID-19 infections in the Philippines may reach 40,000 by June 30 under the current situation, according to a forecast by the University of the Philippines OCTA Research Team.

[Translation: We assumed that the R naught remains at 1.2. The R naught is already going down. In the National Capital Region, the R naught is less than 1. If we project that, there will be less cases.]“Nag-stabilize ‘yung weight of infection," David pointed out."Although may infection pa rin, hindi na siya kasing dami. Sa spike kasi, ‘yun din ang nag-cause nitong pagtaas ng R naught.”

While the actual testing capacity has increased to 10,000 daily as of Tuesday, Rye said the ideal number of tests conducted daily should be at least 15,000.David and Rye emphasized that the government also needs to monitor provinces where there is a spike in the number of infections, such as Cebu. [Translation: Maybe that’s why we haven’t seen most of the asymptomatic patients because they still roam around. We don’t get to test them. We don’t know who is spreading the virus … That’s why people ask why the pandemic is still spreading when we are under quarantine. Asymptomatic patients still have mobility, and presumably they are spreading it.]

[Translation: We have reached that point in our capacity that we can accommodate more high risk individuals with or without symptoms.]

 

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The important is the rate of deaths, which still is very low

Oo sa dami ng mga pawoke s kalsada.

BECAUSE you allowed people to held rally inside the campus!

aren't this a spike cases?!

oh their prediction is right. we are now on 24k mark.

i would like to request the UP RESEARCHES IF THERE IS ANY CLUE THAT WEARING FACE MASK UPON EXHALING-INHALING,IN A MATTER OF A SPLIT SECONDS, THE CHINESE VIRUS MUTATES WITHIN ITSELF,THUS AUTOMATICALLY INFECTED THE USER?

Diane, ano kaya reaction ni Cynthia sa research na ito?

Baka nga lagoas 40k na rh

They know better but our health dept is not overwhelmed as they've said. This forecast maybe surpassed coz the real-time number of positive cases weren't attained. To support, DOH tracker reveals 31k+ positive, yet with 6k to be confirmed. Until now no aggressive actions taken.

As for the latest nationwide COVID tally, the country now surpassed the 24,000 mark.

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