The Week Ahead

The research house maintained its peak OPR forecast of 3.25% with the balance of risks tilted towards a print of 3% and the Bloomberg consensus peak OPR estimate being 3%.According to a Bloomberg poll, two economists expect no change to the OPR at 2.75%.UOB Global Economics and Markets Research continues to see room for further normalisation of monetary policy, on the back of sticky core inflationary pressures, still positive domestic growth momentum and domestic financial stability.

Thereafter, Bank Negara will leave the OPR unchanged for the rest of the year in view of a softer inflation outlook globally in the second half of 2023, an expected end to the global rate hike cycle by mid-2023 and rising recession risks in advanced economies.RETAIL sales could contract once more, down by 6% y-o-y given still elevated inflation and slowing growth momentum, according to ING.

It added that the purchasing managers’ index remained in expansion mode for the first few months while retail sales managed to stabilise after a brief contraction in January with inflation easing.

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