Brace for second wave of economic bad news

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This will come when most of the measures in the Prihatin and Penjana programmes end in September and is likely to be more severe. FMTNews Covid19

Under the movement control order, people are prohibited from going more than 10km from their homes to buy essential items.

The impact of the first wave will be clear from the next round of data for gross domestic product in the second quarter release on Aug 12. The May and June trade data showed a mixed picture, confirming the weakness in the international trade with another contraction in exports of 25.5% year-on-year and imports falling 30.4% year-on-year due to weakness in domestic demand.

The second wave of economic damage is likely to start once the wage subsidies end and firms begin to cut wages or more likely start widespread retrenchments, which are currently discouraged under the MCO regulations. We expect a surge in unemployment which is already at historic levels. This will all have an effect on businesses and we expect revenues and investment to fall and indebtedness to rise, which will likely cause a surge in business defaults and closures as owners see debts they cannot service and bills they cannot pay all falling due after the payment moratorium.

 

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