Everything is Predictable: How Bayes’ Remarkable Theorem Explains the World review: Why life is a poker game

Everything is Predictable: How Bayes’ Remarkable Theorem Explains the World review: Why life is a poker gameHumans are predication machines. Every second of every day, we are trying to navigate the world based on our predictions. We are making predictions when we book a holiday, based on our prior knowledge and beliefs, that our destination will still exist when we travel there next summer and that an airplane will still exist that is capable of flying us there safely.

It can even explain depression, the author argues, by identifying the cause as being inappropriately strong prior beliefs about perceived negative aspects of the self – such as “I am a bad person”. When such “priors”, as the author calls them, are strong in an individual, they cannot be shifted no matter how much new evidence comes along to disprove them.

The constant updating of data about the world through our senses, and testing it against our belief system, is how our brains work. It is also how artificial intelligence works.

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