Will the ‘Magnificent Seven’ remain magnificent?

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Apple, Nvidia and other tech giants have driven Wall Street to record levels. That could turn into a problem.

A lot has been said and written about the dominance of the US sharemarket by the “Magnificent Seven” mega technology stocks that have driven the market to record levels. Should a reliance on such a narrow slice of the market be a concern for investors?The New York FANG index, which largely reflects their performance, has surged almost 85 per cent over the past year and is up nearly 13 per cent so far this year.

That’s probably because they are highly cash-generative. Not only do their cash flows fund their operations and capital investment, but most of them have hefty cash reserves that benefit from higher interest rates. Apple, for instance, was holding $US73 billion of cash and liquid assets at December 31.The 10 largest companies by value in the US market now account for more than 30 per cent of the S&P 500’s value, which Goldman says is the highest level since 1980.

While the biggest stocks in the US market are much bigger as a share of the market than in the dot-com bubble of 2000, valuations today are much lower than in that episode, the “Nifty 50” era in the US or Japan’s bubble in the 1980s.In terms of forward price-earnings multiples, the Magnificent Seven trade on about half the multiples of the seven biggest stocks ahead of the dot-com crash. They are far more profitable and have far stronger balance sheets.

That share of global equities slumped to less than 30 per cent in the late 1980s when, at the peak of Japan’s sharemarket and economic bubble, Japan had the biggest market and the four biggest companies and six of the top 10 in the world. For the sceptics, Goldman does provide some comfort in responding to whether the high levels of concentration in the market pose a big risk.

 

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