Why would Islamic State attack Russia and what does this mean for the terrorism threat globally?

It appears almost certain the brutal assault on a Russian crowd settling down to watch a rock concert in Moscow on Friday night was an Islamist terrorist attack.

So who is this group, why would they attack Russia and what does this mean for the broader terrorism threat? What is ISIS-K? ISIS-K is the Islamic State branch that has most consistently and energetically attempted terrorist attacks across Europe, including in Russia. ISIS-K has planned some 21 attacks in nine countries in the past year, up from eight the previous year.

Read more: A string of assassinations in Afghanistan point to ISIS-K resurgence – and US officials warn of possible attacks on American interests in next 6 months We don’t yet know whether the Kremlin will continue to blame Ukraine or the West for the attack, or if it will pivot to accept Islamic State was responsible.

But it was also likely opportunity and personnel that led the group to select a soft target in Moscow, as much as anything else. And last month, a Russian national accused of having Islamic State links was arrested in Poland, while another was arrested working at a nuclear facility under construction in Turkey.

In January of this year, ISIS-K launched a massive suicide bombing in Kerman, Iran, killing nearly 100 people at a ceremony to mark the fourth anniversary of the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani.

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