The countless individual tributes to Alexei Navalny show there is another Russia, and it’s one the west must supportpresident of Russia. In truth, Russian voters have no genuine choice this weekend, since Putin has killed his most formidable opponent, Alexei Navalny, and ordered the disqualification of any other candidate who presented even a small chance of genuine competition.
Yet these past few weeks have shown us that there’s still an Other Russia, as there was an Other Germany even at the height of Adolf Hitler’s power in the Third Reich. Tens of thousands of Russians of all ages and classes took the risk of subsequent reprisals in order to pay tribute to Navalny, producing that unforgettable image ofcovered in a sheer mountain of flowers.
Whatever happens this weekend, it would clearly be naive to expect regime change, or even major policy change, in the Kremlin anytime soon. “Political risk” consultants may earn fat corporate fees for making predictions about Russian domestic politics.
That process usually takes decades, accompanied by instability and conflict. More immediately, however, a victory for Ukraine – which, despite recent siren calls to the contrary, necessarily requires Ukraine to recover most of its territory over the next few years – would be a major defeat for Putin. That defeat would be more likely to catalyse political change in Russia than any alternative scenario.
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