3 things to watch for in Russia’s presidential election – other than Putin’s win, that is

Russians will vote in a presidential election from March 15-17, 2024, and are all but guaranteed to hand Vladimir Putin a comfortable victory, paving the way for him to remain in power until at least 2030.

With Russian domestic media and politics all but gutted of dissenting voices, the war has become the organizing principle of post-2022 Russian politics, shaping all major policies and decisions. Unsurprisingly, perhaps, the Russian public still doesn’t agree on what its aims are. There are relatively few ardent supporters of the war, outweighed by a more general sense of fatigue among the public. This is supported by survey data that shows that consistent majorities in Russia would prefer to start peace talks – though this of course does not tell us what type of peace they prefer.

2. Pressure to deliver results for Putin While autocratic regimes like Russia’s have proved adept at managing the electoral process to squeeze out rivals and mitigate against upsets, elections are still high-stakes events. But with the economy on a war footing, and with an acute labor shortage, it is unclear whether this tried and tested approach will work. Moreover, political disengagement and the certainty of a Putin victory means that interest in voting is at an all-time low. For local officials, the pressure is on.

Beyond these subtler forms of manipulation, however, there are also overtly coercive ways to ensure vote targets are met. This is particularly the case for the millions of Ukrainians currently under Russian occupation, who are subject to intense pressure from the occupying authorities to acquire Russian citizenship and to vote.

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