The wildcard for global markets remains Putin

“Investors have gone from believing that Russia is likely to crush Ukraine at the beginning of the war to a consensus view that the most likely scenario will be a prolonged stalemate to discussing a possibility of Ukraine crushing Russia,” says Macquarie’s strategist in New York, Viktor Shvets.

He says one extreme outcome that has not yet been discussed is the impact military defeats and a regime change might have on the Russian Federation itself. “Most investors do not realise that Russia is indeed a federation of more than 200 nations and 100 distinct language groups, that have little or nothing in common with either East Slavic languages or the Orthodox religion,” Shvets says.

“The best way to look at Russia is as a mini-Soviet Union-type empire that could be as prone to nationalism and desire for decolonisation as any other part of the world.Advertisement “Especially troublesome are autonomous areas around the Volga and the Caucuses. When the USSR broke up, two of the largest autonomous regions refused to sign a federation treaty, which led to a protracted Chechnya war.Shvets believes extreme outcomes can be avoided, but the risks of that happening have increased over the past week.Connect with

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