The data on carbon emissions in 2023 is only just in, but we can already predict where things will go this year.
That’s because a country’s greenhouse footprint can be boiled down to three factors: its economic growth, the energy intensity of that growth, and the carbon intensity of that energy. On all three, China performs dismally outside the norm — and the dirigiste policymaking typified by the NPC is the major culprit.
Put those numbers together with the GDP growth target, and we can already see that a pollution peak won’t come this year unless China’s economy gets far more efficient at turning carbon into growth. Those lower levels would be sufficient to bring China’s emissions to a peak, but it’s not going to happen at this year’s mandated pace of GDP growth. To achieve a decline, carbon efficiency would need to improve close to its fastest rate since President Xi Jinping came to power.Such a downbeat picture might seem surprising when set against the fact that China installed about three-fifths of all wind power and roughly the same share of solar globally last year.
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