Almost six months after Vladimir Putin ordered Russian troops into Ukraine, the extent of the damage to the European economy is becoming clear. The red lights of recession are flashing., France, Italy and Spain – have all had their growth forecasts for 2023 downgraded by the International Monetary Fund, as a combination of the war and higher interest rates put a brake on activity.for the first time in 40 years as households struggle with rising energy bills.
“It will need an economic miracle for Germany not to fall into recession in the second half of the year,” said Carsten Brzeski of the Dutch bank ING. “The fact that the entire German economic business model is currently up for renovation will also weigh on growth prospects in the coming years.”Russia supplied more than half of Germany’s gas in 2020 and about a third of all oil.
The government has put in place an energy support package worth more than €30bn , including a €300 lump sum for workers, extra support for those on welfare, cuts to petrol and diesel taxes and discounted €9 bus and train tickets.Chances of recession France should be better insulated than many other European nations, thanks to its large nuclear energy sector, which accounts for just over 70% of its electricity generation, but it has been struggling with serious faults at ageing reactors.
Graph comparing expected growth in 2022 with expecetd growth in 2023, which is much lower, for Spain, France, Germany, Italy and the UK
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