This has led to sharp criticism of the nation’s modellers, in particular the Burnet Institute, which has supplied key modelling to the Victorian and NSW governments. Thelast month described its work as “alarmist … dire predictions that have failed to come true”.With rare exceptions, nearly every senior modelling scientist I have spoken to during the pandemic has been upset about how their modelling is covered by the media and understood by the public.
University of Melbourne professor James McCaw, who supplies modelling to the federal government, says: “Forecasts are like the weather: aiming to be accurate over two to four weeks. Scenarios can run for months, and attempt to guide policy by examining ‘What if ...?’ questions. But it was well off on the hospitalisations, with the total number of people in hospital tracking along the bottom end of the projected range.
I’m guessing this article is just sucking up to the modellers, so I won’t even read it. It’s a foregone conclusion. OpenMind - my a$$
Depends how you count “COVID cases”. What PCR test cycles are you using? Are you counting all cases including ones that have absolutely no symptoms yet people have reported anyway? These may in fact be false positives. Positive result in a high-cycle PCR test does not mean cases.
liammannix Models only as good as data inputs. Media loves 'clickbait'. I have told you before, 'context' is important - underlying health conditions, genetics, blood groups, micronutrient deficiencies. Why do some people (even young) get so sick while others don't? No answers!
A simple examination of the trajectory of Delta outbreaks in almost any other country (India & Thailand are two good examples) would have shown a peak around 9 weeks from when infections first started to double quickly, with new cases falling away quickly. Simple answers are best
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