Valuations for companies most likely to be affected have actually risen since the proposal was first mootedThere’s a simple test for whether international moves to crack down on tax avoidance announced at the weekend are going to be effective: check the stock market.
Compare the S&P 500 Index to the Nasdaq Composite, for instance. The latter is weighted towards the multinational technology companies that have been the target of the measures against tax base erosion — but its valuation premium to the more domestic-focused S&P 500 has rarely been richer than over the past 12 months, with a forward price-earnings multiple 9.6 points higher than the broader benchmark compared with a 3.9 point gap over the previous decade.
One explanation is that businesses such as Facebook are already banking a significant win. US corporate income taxes for large enterprises hovered around 35% since the 1980s before dropping to 21% with the 2018 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. A rise back to pre-Trump levels was never on the cards, but even Biden’s initial proposal of a 28% rate may now be scrapped.
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