Ongoing concerns around the Omicron variant, electricity supply constraints, a poor jobs outlook, and material fiscal constraints do not set South Africa’s expected economic growth recovery on a good path, says Sanisha Packirisamy, economist at Momentum Investments.
The group forecasts South Africa’s GDP to slip to 2% in 2022, with inflation at 4.6%. This will fall further to a GDP growth of 1.8% in 2023 and inflation at 4.3%, it said. “Medium-term pressures on government expenditure resulting from potential overruns on the wage bill and the need to support 9.5 million households who will face an expiration of the Social Relief of Distress Grant at the end of March 2022 compromise the government’s fiscal consolidation and debt stabilisation plans,” Packirisamy said.
2022 will also be key at the political level with several important ANC meetings set to take place this year which are likely to set a course for the country’s economic trajectory.
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