What to expect from the rand in the coming months

South Africans are likely to hear a wide range of forecasts about the rand this year, from R14/dollar to as high as R17/dollar – but R15/dollar is probably a truer reflection of the rand’s long-term value, says Dr Francois Stofberg, senior economist at the Efficient Group.

This was echoed by Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop, who says the rand is now consolidating below R15.50/dollar, but is likely to attempt R15.20/dollar this month in line with typical strengthening seen over the January period. The domestic currency so far averages R15.67/dollar for the first few weeks of this quarter, she said.

“This has supported the rand’s strength, along with easing monetary policy in the world’s largest emerging market economy. China’s first cut in its key interest rate since April 2020, of 10bp, occurred as its economic growth slowed, lifting sentiment for emerging markets,” she said.

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