What a coalition could mean for the future of Gauteng, South Africa and the 'big 3'

Nqabayomzi Kwankwa, Julius Malema and Mmusi Maimane at Mary Fitzgerald Square during the the 'secret ballot march' from Newtown to the Constitutional Court on May 15, 2017 in Johannesburg. ,

Those cases provide clear examples of the complexities of coalition politics as power politics takes centre stage and foes become friends. They also demonstrated just how tricky it is to both build and sustain a viable and resilient coalition. Get it wrong and it can be very messy, and can prompt a backlash from citizens and, later, from the electorate.To analyse the potential coalition options for Gauteng, it is worth recalling the current composition of the legislature as it stands today.

In theory at least, the ANC may form a coalition with those"others" – as it would probably prefer to do. But with the threshold for representation higher in provincial legislatures than in the National Assembly, and with the current smaller parties here consisting of what have proved to be trusty allies for the DA in their coalitions, this too is unlikely.

International experiences have several success stories of stable coalitions formed between parties of differing ideological views and polarised supporter bases.

The second is a risk to the parties themselves. With such opposed supporter bases, the risk of backlash from these parties' voters is high, as many may see this partnership as undesirable or even a betrayal – especially as both parties will be forced to compromise on their manifestos if they are to find common ground.If the ANC seriously fears the EFF as a viable opponent in the elections to come, this, ironically, may be the best way of getting rid of them.

Many also fear this alliance as the worst scenario for investor confidence in South Africa's economic hub. The EFF will be a powerful kingmaker with a significant amount of bargaining power being indispensable to the ANC's position of power. The ANC will likely be forced to make considerable compromises to the EFF and its more populist policies, which if they fail to do so will result in the EFF withdrawing their support for the ANC and potentially making the province ungovernable.

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