The ugliest year ever for US corporate-bond investors is expected to get uglier -- and they only have the Federal Reserve to blame. Picture: BLOOMBERG
The results underscore the bittersweet outlook for fixed-income investors that were hit during the first half of the year with the deepest losses since at least the early 1970s. The survey included responses from 707 investment professionals and individual investors. Yields on corporate bonds have edged steadily higher over Treasuries during the waves of selling that raced through fixed-income markets this year. That spread on investment-grade corporate debt reached as much as 160 basis points in July, according to Bloomberg’s index, before pulling back slightly.
As a result, some 86% of survey respondents said that companies are better positioned to weather a recession than they were in 2008. That’s in part because many businesses refinanced their debts after the Fed slashed rates in 2020. “We would urge extreme caution in the CCC segment,” McClain said. “Investors should take some duration and some credit risk, but too much of either is a recipe for disaster.”
“The high-yield market has become much more high quality — with more interest-rate sensitive BBs — in the last three to four years,” he said. “Because of this, the rate impact is going to be more pronounced in high yield than it has been historically.”
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