US-China rivalry, the tech crunch and more: five forces moving the markets in 2022

2022-01-20 10:17:00 AM

SPONSORED | Investec webinar highlights the global trends to watch

SPONSORED | “Few factors have the potential to shape 2022 like the path of global inflation”: Investec reveals the major trends to watch this year.

SPONSORED | Investec webinar highlights the global trends to watch

Knowing which trends are likely to shape the world in 2022 will put you in a better position to navigate the road ahead. Picture: GETTY IMAGES VIA INVESTECwith Tom Standage, deputy editor ofTo be sure, TSMC is going great guns. It plans to spend $100bn over the next three years to increase production capacity. That should help to moderate electronic goods prices. Provided, of course, that China doesn’t carry out its threat to annex Taiwan.

Democracy is the worst form of government — except for all the others. That Churchill maxim will be rigorously tested in 2022.As the pandemic headlines subside, expect the rivalry between the US and China to reignite, fanned by disparate philosophies on how to run a country and what sort of society we should aspire to live in.

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Investec highlights the global trends to watch 18 January 2022 - 12:53 Warren Kelly Sponsored Knowing which trends are likely to shape the world in 2022 will put you in a better position to navigate the road ahead.Set be launched later in the year, this hotly anticipated Toyota Hilux and Nissan Navara rival promises to up the ante with significantly upgraded tech, a more luxurious cabin and, of course, better performance both on and off the beaten path.CEO optimism around global economic factors is at its highest in a decade, with 77% of 4 446 CEOs surveyed predicting improving conditions while only 15% expect the economy to worsen.to sustain multi-year broad rising trend in capitalisation rates The recovery of the global economy subsequent to 2020’s hard lockdown-related recession, coupled with major global supply chain disruptions to the supply side of the economy, has unleashed a surge in inflationary pressures.

Picture: GETTY IMAGES VIA INVESTEC We live in a world where the boundaries between global and local are becoming increasingly blurred. Consider, for instance, the pragmatically named Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). This includes the fitment of a wider cargo box with specially engineered slats set into the actual load bed liner. It is no hyperbole to say that its atom-thin silicon chips power much of the world’s technology. Read: World economy: Big factors to watch closely in 2022 Global supply-chain snags starting to ease: warehouse operator “While the ongoing pandemic and emergence of new variants cast a shadow over the year, the high level of CEO optimism we found speaks to the strength and resilience of the global economy and the ability of CEOs to manage through uncertainty,” says PwC global chair Bob Moritz. When the company couldn’t keep up with resurgent consumer demand in 2021, all things digital suddenly became a lot more expensive, and global supply chains across almost every industry were disrupted. Other neat touches to keep your load secured include a pair of external tie-down rails, an internal rail with spring-loaded sliding cleats on either side of the cargo box as well as six fixed tie-down points. This was one of the topics discussed during"The World Ahead", a with Tom Standage, deputy editor of The Economist , addressing the major global trends likely to shape the world in 2022. Three more such 25 basis point interest rate hikes are expected in 2022, taking prime rate from its current 7.

In his introduction, co-host Philip Shaw, chief economist of Investec UK, noted that “second-hand car prices are up 20% year-on-year in the UK. Engineered to help owners with professional or DIY jobs, two clamp pockets concealed by spring-loaded caps in the tailgate enables one to secure timber or other project materials, while a built-in ruler with 10mm increments (on models not fitted with a drop-in bed liner) makes measuring convenient.” Views vary geographically While there is general optimism among CEOs for economic growth in 2022, this view varies across individual countries and territories. That’s mostly due to a shortage of chips needed to make new cars.” To be sure, TSMC is going great guns.. It plans to spend $100bn over the next three years to increase production capacity. “Optimism about growth prospects in Africa indicates greater resilience; Africa’s CEOs are leading their organisations more effectively, managing more complex scenarios, engaging with a broader set of stakeholders and acting with courage during uncertainty. That should help to moderate electronic goods prices.9%, and the broad rising trend is expected to continue in 2022.

Provided, of course, that China doesn’t carry out its threat to annex Taiwan. Beyond the increasingly tangled web of global supply chains, this webinar highlighted several other forces that'll be moving the markets this year. The same perspective is seen in countries such as Japan (plus 16 points to 83%, from 67% last year), United Kingdom (up five points to 82%), Italy (reached 89%, up 18 points from a year ago), and France (soaring 25 points to 85%). Here's a closer look at five of them: 1. Mine is better than yours Democracy is the worst form of government — except for all the others. That Churchill maxim will be rigorously tested in 2022. According to PwC, the trend may be attributed to the inflation and supply chain constraints that have become more of an issue. However, rising cap rates and weak net operating income growth is expected to keep average capital values in"real" declining territory, in other words the low capital growth that may be experienced is not expected to keep pace with the general price inflation rate in the economy.

The US midterm elections, sure to be fractious, will stand juxtaposed against China’s Party Congress, where president Xi Jinping will reassume power by diktat of a handful of party officials. The Asian powerhouse will shake its collective head at the inability of US politicians to get things done, while the juggernaut of the West will chastise the unsustainable character of autocratic regimes that suppress individual freedoms. “People are worried not just about whether democracy works or not, or whether its survival is under threat. Threats According to the report, cyber and health risks rank as the leading global potential threats that could impact on companies’ overall performance – 59% of CEOs in financial services cite cyber attacks as a key threat, while manufacturing (40%) and consumer (39%) CEOs displayed lower concern levels despite those sectors’ high attack volumes. It's about showing that democracy is superior,” said Standage. As the pandemic headlines subside, expect the rivalry between the US and China to reignite, fanned by disparate philosophies on how to run a country and what sort of society we should aspire to live in. While actual (nominal) valuations weren’t yet declining significantly until much later, nine out of 11 semesters from 2016 to the 1st half of 2021 have shown real (GDP inflation-adjusted) declines in average values when compared with the preceding semester.

2. According to Shango, CEOs in Africa are understandably concerned about health risks outside Covid-19, including diseases such as malaria, tuberculosis, HIV/Aids and others that have remained challenging for many years. The road to endemic Vaccines are lowering Covid-19 related deaths and hospitalisations. In addition, 2022 will see the arrival of more effective, second-generation jabs, as well as pill-form antiviral treatments from Merck and Pfizer. In many countries, Covid-19 is on the way to becoming a non-life threatening, treatable disease. “When CEOs look at the next 12 months, they are understandably concerned about potential threats to short-term performance that could result from disruptions, including macroeconomic volatility, cyber and health risks,” adds Moritz. But the emergence of the Omicron variant is both a risk and a cautionary tale. Firstly, a large portion of demand for hotel rooms is non-essential in nature, and with many businesses and households financially pressured in the aftermath of the major 2020 recession, many will continue to put travel and hotel stays on the back burner.

With lower vaccination rates and scarce health care, poorer countries may serve as hotbeds for mutations and new variants, even though they can ill afford it. That outcome wouldn’t be novel.fm Palesa Mofokeng is a Moneyweb intern. “Think of a disease such as malaria, a minor inconvenience to people from the rich world. Maybe they pick it up on holiday, they take a few pills, and it goes away. Meanwhile, the disease kills millions of people every year in poorer countries.preventDefault(); jQuery('html, body'). By October 2021, average hotel occupancy rate had risen to only 31.

That’s a reflection of inequalities in income and healthcare systems,” said Standage. 3. Inflation in transit Few factors have the potential to shape 2022 like the path of global inflation.offset(). The prevailing view is that the current uptick in prices is due largely to a surge of pent-up demand as economies rebound, combined with supply shortages, while capacity that was mothballed during lockdowns is reinstated. But if inflation proves more permanent than transitory, interest rate hikes will follow, potentially throwing markets into turmoil. 5.

There are, however, early signs that global supply chains have found some grease.bind('click', function () { jQuery(this. The lead times for semiconductors look to have peaked, as do shipping costs. Energy prices, however, remain elevated. Perhaps the biggest threat to the transitory hypothesis is the legitimacy of the Great Resignation.moneyweb. If labour market shortages persist because people have left the workforce for good, then higher wages seem inevitable, with knock-on price effects across the board. Much has been made of the work from home (WFH) surge, and this is a key dampener of demand for office space.

Shaw acknowledged the risk, but tempered it: “Our working assumption is that labour market dynamics are not going through a permanent shift. We saw participation rates fall in the US during the global financial crisis, which was followed by a slow, but steady recovery.gif", imageBtnPrev:"https://www.” READ MORE: Investec Global Outlook 2022: Transit to new normal but risk of delays 4. What do you mean by hybrid? “Bosses generally have nicer offices and they like being there because they get to tell everyone what to. Workers are less keen on the idea, so there's a disparity there,” said Standage, framing his view on the future of work.za/wp-content/themes/moneyweb-domination/images/bg_direction_nav. This means that, even without any increase in remote work, there are less employees in these services sectors, which would normally imply less office space needed.

The hybrid working model seems to be the consensus for 2022, but there’s almost no alignment on what “hybrid” looks like. Somewhat ironically, that uncertainty creates the potential for workplaces to become more inequitable than they were pre-pandemic. At the heart of that threat is visibility in the office.co. Not everyone will choose to work from home, but those who do may find themselves marginalised through their physical absence. More worryingly, it’s those who previously faced prejudice — single working mothers, for example — who are keenest to stay home. Partly offsetting the above-mention office space"demand dampeners" is social distancing measures in the office, which often requires companies to have lower density work space.

If not designed purposefully and with care, hybrid working models could undo progress on closing gender pay gaps, inclusion and diversity.getSelection) { var range=window.   READ MORE: A new working equilibrium 5. Reigning on the tech parade There are few things that US Democrats and Republicans agree on, other than that China is wrong on almost everything. Yet one gets the sense that both camps felt a grudging admiration for the way Jinping put Jack Ma, the founder of tech conglomerate Alibaba, back in his box when he got a little too ambitious.selection. The sweeping regulations imposed by the Chinese government on their tech industry look to have both altruistic and ulterior motives. After underperforming the office market in the 2020 lockdown year, retail property made something of a comeback in 2021, and its total returns last year likely outperformed those of office property but underperformed those of industrial property.

Many parents with screen-addicted children would agree that restricting gaming platforms is not an entirely bad idea, nor is making online learning content more affordable. But halting IPOs and banning celebrities from social media platforms seems a ham-fisted way to go about it.createRange(); return range. If the president gets his way, Chinese tech firms will be spending more time on developing artificial intelligence, quantum computing and robotics capabilities than on consumer tech and online shopping. Can their hands be forced? Standage has his doubts. “If you look at the numbers, you can see start-up funding in the US has shot up, while in China it's trending down.parentNode. Real disposable income growth is expected to be constrained by very weak employment growth, companies often attempting to use labour productivity improvement instead of employing, as they rebuild balance sheets.

We think the regulation is likely to stifle economic dynamism, hamper innovation and reduce entrepreneurism.” Either way, US politicians will be keen to show that they, too, have the muscle to reign in their swashbuckling tech CEOs, particularly as the negative aspects of ubiquitous platforms such as Facebook continue to draw louder criticism. READ ON: Visit to read about five other forces that will be moving the markets in 2022 and to watch the webinar Q&A.href="https://twitter. This article was paid for by Investec. ALSO READ: . 7.