literature to support these claims. Nor does the literature, including that mentioned by Harris and Makrelov, on balance conclude “very small” or negative multipliers. One would imagine Harris and Makrelov’s concern for evidence-based policy debate would extend beyond my op-ed. Surely, it is far more concerning that the finance minister and the Treasury are making claims without citingThis is not an isolated incident, with the Treasury making other unsupported claims.
Kemp, for instance, generally finds positive multipliers, at levels that could neither be described as “large” or “very small”. In addition, Kemp estimates that when a recessionary environment is considered, “output multipliers are significantly larger”. Similarly, it goes unacknowledged that their own paper includes an implicit criticism of Kemp’s approach. By contrast, my article, at which they take aim, contained examples of variables that may increase or decrease the multiplier.
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