Investec has published its updated economic scenarios for South Africa – including ‘extreme’ scenarios on the upside and downside for where the rand/dollar exchange rate and repo rate could land up if certain conditions are met.
This is boosted by high business confidence and fixed investment growth, substantial foreign direct investment, and strong fiscal consolidation as the government brings debt under control. Policies of land expropriation are largely abandoned or are done in such a way so as to have no impact on the economy, while nationalisation takes place.South Africa sees lower than expected inflation on the back of good weather, rand strength, government interventions and increased privatisation.
Civil and political unrest wanes, while inflation is impacted by the normal course of weather patterns. The country sees a modest transition to renewable energy and slow move away from fossil fuels, while measures to combat climate change are introduced modestly.
This has not factored in the human element, on the ground the potential unrest is at an all time high
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