Tactical asset allocation as a short-term market view

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SIMON BROWN: You’re probably going to get it right a few times; consistency’s going to be the problem. And then, as I understand, at 10X – and of course you’ve got the CoreShares ETFs in that stable now – you do slight tweaks, but they’re much more a longer-term view. Broadly you want equities, you want bonds and you’re not going to suddenly say, let’s go very aggressive SA Inc.

So if you follow that line of thinking through, material changes in the market environment today will impact forward-looking return expectations, and as a result you should see a significant change in your strategic asset allocation if there is a material change in the market environment. If there isn’t a material change in the market environment, then you wouldn’t expect changes in your portfolio either.

But if what you’re saying is, you know what, based off current valuations, the long-term return expectations over the next five to 10 years are looking materially lower than other asset classes available, and as a result I’m now down-weighting US equities with that five- to 10-year view, the impact on your asset allocation today could actually be the same.

Source: News Formal (newsformal.com)

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