In October last year, the National Institute for Communicable Diseases alerted the public to a measles outbreak in Limpopo. Since then, four more provinces have reported outbreaks, and the number of positive cases in the country has climbed rapidly.from the NICD indicated that between the first week of October 2022 and mid-week in the second week of January 2023, a total of 397 cases of measles were identified across the country.
There are more than a million unvaccinated children under five, and possibly about 2.5 million unvaccinated under 15 years in South Africa. Dr Kerrigan McCarthy, a pathologist from the Centre for Vaccines and Immunology at the NICD, tellsthis is the biggest outbreak in 11 years, surpassing the outbreak in 2017 when around 280 cases of measles were identified.
She adds that the true extent of this outbreak — and whether new cases have really declined or not — may only become clear in the next few weeks, as schools across the country resume activities. Saloojee agrees that it isn’t possible to predict exactly how this outbreak will behave. “There are obviously three possible outcomes,” he says, “An increase, levelling off, or decline. My fear and expectation [are] that the outbreak will continue to expand. There are more than a million unvaccinated children under five, and possibly about 2.5 million unvaccinated under 15 years.
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